"We are cautiously optimistic about the season," said the CEO of the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele. "The solid growth trajectory the industry has been on, has held, so far. But serious threats remain. A significant one for this season is the tariff turmoil that could disrupt the US market for a portion of our growers."

Ntshabele added that it is imperative that a trade deal or exemption for seasonal fresh produce be agreed on by the governments of SA and the US before a paused 30% tariff comes into effect in two and a half months' time. Although the US represents only 4% - 6% of SA's citrus exports, the US market is the lifeblood of Western Cape rural towns such as Citrusdal.

The figure for expected total 2025 citrus exports from SA has been calculated after the estimates for late mandarins were finalised recently. The late mandarin variety estimates show impressive growth. These positive estimates come after the CGA released season estimates in March for lemons, oranges, grapefruit and early mandarins.

"It seems to be a favourable start to the 2025 season so far," highlighted Ntshabele. "The early season is mostly dominated by exports of lemons and grapefruit. Lemons are in demand and the lemon price also looks good. Also, we've exported 55% more grapefruit than last year at this point."

Paul Hardman, Chief Operating Officer of the CGA, said: "If we can address the main challenges our growers face - and these are logistical inefficiencies at our ports, the US tariff uncertainty, existing tariffs in other markets and difficult access to markets like the European Union due to unnecessary phytosanitary (plant health) measures - only then will the citrus success story continue." Because of many new plantings over the past few years, the industry can export more citrus and add 100 000 new jobs to the South African economy by 2032, if these obstacles are removed, added Hardman.