The CIPS Q3 2025 Pulse Survey, which tracks procurement sentiment across global industries, has found that short-term supply chain concern fell to 4.36 out of 7, down from 4.57 in Q2, while 12-month concern declined slightly to 4.86, remaining above 2024 averages. Despite this temporary relief, procurement leaders continue to flag tariff uncertainty, cyber threats and geopolitical risk as top medium-term challenges.

While the survey shows a welcome easing in global supply chain anxiety, the South African market doesn’t have the luxury of complacency. For us, any disruption – whether cyber, tariff or logistics – has a disproportionate impact on jobs, inflation and growth. We must build resilience as a core competency, not just a quarterly priority.

Data from the South African Association of Freight Forwarders (SAAFF) for the week starting 26 October underscores the ongoing fragility of domestic logistics. Operations at local terminals were hampered by inclement weather, equipment breakdowns and vacant berths across all major ports. Durban and Cape Town in particular experienced extended downtime due to adverse weather and mechanical issues.

These disruptions come as global trade policy activity accelerates, with the World Trade Organisation-International Monetary Fund “Global Trade Policy Activity Index” showing a sharp rise in both liberalising and restrictive measures since 2023 – a signal that governments are taking a more interventionist stance amid geopolitical and environmental pressures.

A troubling statistic raised in the latest CIPS Pulse Survey is that 29% of organisations reported an increase in cyber-attacks on their supply chains in the past six months, confirming that digital risk is now as pressing as physical disruption. Cyber resilience is no longer a back-office IT concern. In South Africa, our supply chains are increasingly the front door for cyber criminals. Procurement leaders must now treat cyber risk with the same urgency as physical supply disruption.

This is highlighted by findings contained in Check Point Software’s Q1 2025 Global Cyber Attack Report. South Africa had 1,884 attacks per organisation per week – a year-on-year increase of 69%.

The CIPS report also found a structural pivot toward nearshoring and local manufacturing, with 59% of global procurement teams exploring local production as a hedge against tariff instability.

The pivot towards nearshoring is particularly significant for South Africa and the continent. It speaks to the need to strengthen regional value chains under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Localising more manufacturing isn’t only about avoiding tariffs – it’s about industrialising Africa on Africa’s terms.

This trend aligns with efforts by regional economies to deepen intra-African trade and reduce dependence on global shipping routes that remain exposed to weather, congestion and cost volatility.

CIPS economists note that while fewer organisations (34%) report being directly hit by new US tariffs than in Q2, nearly half (46%) are actively monitoring developments and adapting sourcing strategies.

For Southern Africa, tariff volatility is not an abstract risk. With AGOA uncertainty and shifting global trade rules, procurement leaders are under pressure to design supply strategies that are flexible, diversified and compliant. The message is clear: trade policy is now supply chain policy.

The data shows procurement professionals increasingly moving from short-term crisis management towards long-term supply chain redesign, focusing on supplier diversification, local capability building and digital resilience.

I see this as procurement maturing beyond a crisis response. South Africa and the continent’s supply chains are starting to re-engineer around resilience, investing in local capability, diversifying suppliers and embedding digital security. This is the difference between surviving volatility and thriving through it.

By Paul Vos, Regional Managing Director of CIPS Southern Africa.