According to Terry Gale, Chairman of EWC, the first signs of disruption are already being felt through rising fuel costs and shipping uncertainty as carriers reassess their services to the region. 

The scale of the disruption is significant. The Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints – handles roughly 20% of global oil supply and is a key route for trade moving in and out of the Gulf region. As the conflict intensifies, shipping lines have begun suspending services or rerouting vessels, while air cargo operations have also been affected by airspace closures and flight cancellations across parts of the Middle East. These developments are already placing pressure on freight costs, fuel prices and supply chains globally.

“As tensions escalate in the Middle East, we are already seeing the knock-on effects locally through increasing fuel prices,” said Gale. “For exporters operating on tight margins, particularly in the agricultural sector, these cost increases are immediately felt.”

More concerning for exporters, however, is the operational impact on cargo already destined for the region.

Several shipping lines have begun withdrawing or adjusting services to parts of the Middle East, creating uncertainty around cargo currently on the water and scheduled shipments to the region.

“The Middle East - and the UAE in particular - has been a growing market for Western Cape fruit exports,” said Gale. “The immediate challenge now facing exporters is what happens to containers that are already on the water or in transit to these markets.”

Fresh produce exports face particularly complex constraints. Agricultural products are exported under strict phytosanitary and market-specific protocols, meaning that cargo destined for one country cannot easily be redirected to another market.

“Each country or region has its own import requirements for agricultural products,” explained Gale. “This means cargo that was prepared and certified for one destination cannot simply be diverted elsewhere if that market becomes inaccessible.”

As a result, exporters could face significant financial losses if shipments cannot reach their intended markets.

“This creates a serious conundrum for exporters,” he said. “When a shipment cannot reach its destination and cannot be redirected to another market due to regulatory requirements, the exporter effectively carries the risk.”

Exporters Western Cape is calling for close engagement between government and industry as the situation unfolds.

“We will need to see proactive engagement from government, particularly the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC), to understand the scale of the potential impact and to explore possible support mechanisms should the disruption continue,” said Gale.

EWC said it would continue monitoring developments closely and engaging with exporters, logistics providers and government stakeholders to assess the evolving impact on Western Cape trade flows.