South African small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are heading into 2026 under intense pressure. Rising operating costs and regulatory complexity continue to weigh on business confidence, while weak economic conditions erode consumer spending power. According to the latest Small Business Growth Index, half of South African SMEs are at risk of closing within the next year, highlighting the fragility of the sector.
Against this challenging backdrop, here are three key trends that could help local SMEs build resilience and unlock new demand to mitigate these headwinds.
The rise of mobile commerce
South Africans are shopping on their phones more than ever, with smartphones capturing 72.43% of the country’s e-commerce market in 2024. This phenomenal growth is projected to grow at an 11.52% compound annual rate until 2030.
The planned shutdown of 2G and 3G networks in December 2027 will accelerate upgrades to 4G and 5G devices, pushing mobile adoption even higher. This transformation presents a major opportunity for local businesses. SMEs that design mobile-first websites, streamline the checkout process, and integrate mobile-friendly customer support channels will be in the strongest position to reach new audiences and convert demand.
A need for speed
As consumer expectations move towards instant gratification, SMEs must deliver faster, more reliable service to stay competitive. FedEx research shows that more than 80% of consumers now prioritize convenience, with home delivery favored by 81%, free shipping by 76%, and real-time tracking by 68%. Notably, 38% of consumers are willing to pay for added convenience, including same-day or expedited delivery for urgent needs.
This shift reflects a broader behavioral change: customers expect responsiveness at every stage of the buying journey. Dependable logistics partners are becoming essential to SME growth because they enable faster fulfilment, improved visibility, and more consistent delivery performance. For small businesses, meeting these expectations can translate directly into higher conversions, reduced cart abandonment, and stronger repeat engagement.
Borderless entrepreneurship
Recent research by Rand Merchant Bank shows that South Africa sits on an annual untapped export opportunity worth R1.3 trillion over the next five years, the largest of any African market. Realizing this potential will rely heavily on e-commerce.
The AfCFTA continues to create new openings for regional trade, particularly as global supply chain disruptions highlight the value of diversified markets closer to home. At the same time, social commerce is enabling even micro-businesses to reach niche communities across borders, from artisanal foods to fashion, sometimes drawing international buyers.
This shift is already reshaping SME strategy, with more South African brands thinking globally from day one. Logistics plays a critical role in enabling this growth by simplifying cross-border processes, managing customs complexities, and connecting small businesses to international delivery networks.
South African entrepreneurs have never lacked ingenuity. What will set the most successful SMEs apart in 2026 is the ability to match that ingenuity with the right digital tools, the right partners, and the confidence to pursue growth wherever it emerges. The businesses that stay alert to these shifts will not only withstand a difficult year – they will find new ways to thrive.
Nelson Teixeira, Managing Director of Operations for Sub-Saharan Africa at FedEx
