Page 5 - Logistics News Oct Nov 2020

Ctrack Freight & Transport Index

that it was the hardest hit during the only expected in a year’s time.
COVID-19 lockdown period. The 22,5 percent The recovery in the road transport sector may
improvement quarter on quarter is significant, be due to the move towards courier type transport,
but still leaves Airfreight transport down however, long distance freight transport was at a
33,9 percent compared to the same quarter similar level in September as it was in September
last year. 2019. That being said, September 2019 featured
No other sector was as severely impacted plenty of strike action and was also a weak
during lockdown and IATA, the international economic quarter for the overall South African
commercial aviation body, only expects the sector economy.
to recover to where it was in 2019 by 2022 or 2023. The Storage and Warehouse sector indicates a
However, the latest reports from IATA suggest that drawdown on inventories in the quarter due to cost
African Airfreight in total may have eked out some cutting and supply disruptions, and the decline
growth with a 1 percent improvement compared to of 7,7 percent in this sector indicates a level of
a year ago. uncertainty in the economy.
Sea Freight grew 13,2 percent quarter on Pipelines reported the biggest decline at 38,7
quarter, but is still 6,1 percent behind the same percent quarter on quarter. This is due to the
quarter in 2019. Sea Freight is coming back storing of massive amounts of fuel during the
stronger than expected and improved by 12 percent second quarter and it may be another month or
in September compared to August. two before we see quarterly increases again. With
There are, however, some disruptions in Sea many motorists still not driving due to widespread
Freight expected with Northern Europe going work from home policies, fuel usage remains below
into another lockdown, which is causing delays in par (apart from diesel for trucking which is close to
the supply chain. This will need to be monitored normal).
very carefully as waves of busy periods could be “South Africa is on the verge of climbing on
followed by relatively slow periods. The disruption the economic recovery train with companies
is certainly not over and this sector, while less keen to recover losses and restore their
impacted than Airfreight, remains volatile. turnover figures. However, if business and
the public do not continue to adhere to the
Land-based transport shows improvements basic hygiene and protection guidelines, we
Rail and Road recorded similar increases of 16 could be back into lockdown before we know
percent and 16,8 percent compared to the previous it. Companies that barely survived the first
quarter. While both major forms of land transport lockdown will be sent off a cliff in a second
report disruptions, such as border delays and illegal round and the economic consequences will be
strike action, they are both only 7 percent behind significantly more severe if this does happen,”
the same quarter last year. A complete recovery is comments Jordt. •

Sep-20

Ctrack
Percentage Change between Rail Road Pipeline Sea Air Storage FTI
Quarter to September: 2020 vs
2019 -7,0% -7,3% -41,4% -6,1% -33,9% -27,1% -12,0%
September vs August 2020 -5,6% 1,7% 26,6% 12,3% 21,8% -29,8% -2,2%
Moving quarter on quarter 16,0% 16,9% -38,7% 13,3% 22,5% -7,7% 11,8%
Note: the row highlighted in blue is the main Ctrack Transport and Freight Index values used.
Aug-20

Ctrack
Percentage Change between Rail Road Pipeline Sea Air Storage FTI
Quarter to August: 2020 vs 2019 -12,2% -8,6% -36,9% -9,9% -39,8% -17,8% -13,0%
August vs July 2020 16,9% 0,2% -10,6% 2,9% 3,5% 12,2% 5,3%
Moving quarter on quarter 2,7% 13,2% -34,1% 8,0% 0,5% 5,2% 7,7%
Note: the row highlighted in blue is the main Ctrack Transport and Freight Index values used.

October/November 2020 | Logistics News 3